Member Formation Methods Evaluation for a Storm Surge Ensemble Forecast System in Taiwan
نویسندگان
چکیده
The forecast of typhoon tracks remains uncertain and is positively related to the accuracy storm surge forecast. prediction error increases dramatically when track larger than 100 km. This study aims develop an ensemble system using parametric weather models account for uncertainty in prediction. model adopted this COMCOT-SS system. Two methods are introduced analyzed generate members study. One from (WEPS), other distribution deterministic forecasts (EDF). results show that mean WEPS performs similarly However, maximum height often lower one EDF. verification suggest that, disaster prevention, EDF provides stronger warnings coastal region WEPS. it may provide overestimated some cases.
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Water
سال: 2023
ISSN: ['2073-4441']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/w15101826